Tuesday, August 31, 2010

September Call-Ups: Who's In, Who's Out

The Braves announced their September call-up list earlier today, highlighted by Triple A International League Rookie of the Year Freddie Freeman. Freeman’s only gotten hotter as his season at Gwinnett has progressed, so the promotion is certainly warranted. The rest of the list includes relievers Mike Dunn and Scott Proctor and catcher JC Boscan. Proctor and Dunn give them experienced arms in the ‘pen while Boscan is a 14-year minor-leaguer who will serve as the third-string catcher behind McCann and Ross. The Braves brought Nate McLouth back up to Atlanta for tonight’s game and Troy Glaus will officially return on Thursday.

Let’s take a quick look at how Freeman, Dunn, Proctor and Boscan have performed this year:

Freeman (1B) - .319/.378/.521, 35 2B, 18 HR, 87 RBI (AAA)
Proctor (RHP) - 5-3, 41.2 IP, 6.91 ERA, 1.68 WHIP, 2.00 K/BB (A+, AAA)
Dunn (LHP) - 0-0, 8.1 IP, 0.00 ERA, 1.80 WHIP, 0.81 K/BB (MLB), 2-0, 47.1 IP, 1.52 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 2.56 K/BB (AAA)
Boscan (C) - .250/.324/.368, 5 HR, 21 RBI

Like the All-Star game and NCAA March Madness, there will always be some players who are more than deserving but don’t get the call up. The two that stand out here are Stephen Marek and Barbaro Canizares. Marek has been a lights-out RHP out of the bullpen at Gwinnett while Canizares just continues to hit as a 1B/DH. Barbaro’s in line to win the IL (AAA) batting title and was just named an IL Postseason All-Star.

A look at Canizares and Marek’s numbers this season:

Marek (RHP) - 6-2, 60.2 IP, 1.19 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 3.55 K/BB (AA, AAA)
Canizares (1B/DH) - .339/.403/.499, 25 2B, 12 HR, 73 RBI (AAA)

The lack of a Canizares call-up can make sense when you realize the Braves now have 5 players (Lee, Hinske, Freeman, Glaus and Prado) who can play 1B. But he’s been too good at the AAA level for too long for him to just waste away in the minors. If the Braves aren’t going to give Barbaro the chance in Atlanta, why not get something out of him with a trade to an AL team who can use him in a productive 1B/DH role? Marek’s exclusion is a little bit more puzzling, especially when you compare his performance this year to Proctor’s. What more can he do?

Sunday, August 29, 2010

BMac Attack!

Boy did Brian McCann (and Matt Diaz) save that series! McCann’s walk-off home run on Sunday capped a tremendous 7-6 comeback win against the Marlins while proving to be the first ever walk-off home run that was decided by instant replay (it was originally ruled a double). I spent Friday and Saturday enjoying a weekend in Upstate, NY’s beautiful Adirondacks at the Dippikill Wilderness Retreat (check it out if you ever get the chance), so Sunday’s ulcer-inducing win was the only one of the series I was able to watch.

Derek Lowe started Sunday for the Braves and lasted all of 3 innings. His 5 ER runs (to go along with 6 H, 4 K, 3 BB and 1 HR) ended his afternoon early and continued his nearly two season long struggle with the Braves. Since Kris Medlen (and now Mike Minor) replaced Kenshin Kawakami in the rotation following Jair Jurrjens return from the DL, Lowe has been the weakest part of this rotation. At $15m/year, Derek Lowe is actually the highest paid player on the team. Over 61 starts with the Braves, Lowe has a 4.60 ERA to go along with a 1.47 WHIP and a 0.4 WAR. In case those numbers aren’t clear, he, ummm, hasn't been very good for the Braves. It’s well publicized that the team tried mightily to trade Lowe over the past off-season, but his age, performance and contract made that essentially impossible. Well, add another year with an ERA north of 4.00 (currently 4.53) and another year to his age (now 37) and it may not be much easier. Lowe will have 2yr/$30m left on his contract instead of 3yr/$45m, but any serious hope that last year was simply an aberration now seems lost. The Braves would likely have to eat a significant portion of his salary and not receive much in return, but I think Lowe needs to be unloaded some way somehow. After Hudson, Hanson and Jurrjens, Mike Minor looks like he’ll stick in the rotation. For the 5th spot, the team will still have Kawakami signed through the 2011 season and a few prospects at Gwinnett (Redmond, Beachy and Diamond) could make the competition interesting. Derek Lowe is simply not working, especially at $15m per year.

The other topic that made itself clear this weekend was the offense’s inconsistency. The team pushed across all of 1 run on Friday and then exploded for 12 runs on Saturday. Through the first 7 innings on Sunday, the Braves managed just 1 run and 4 hits. The final 2 innings saw 6 runs on 4 hits (which included 2 HR). Can you imagine how many wins the Braves would have if they could put together 9 complete innings of offense on a regular basis?! This offense is really a classic Jekyll and Hyde. For most of August (and in fact the majority of the season), we’ve seen near-dominating pitching from the Braves with just enough offense to win ball games. But over the past two series - at the Rockies and home against the Marlins - both the starters and the bullpen have had serious problems. If the offense didn’t put up a significant number of runs then the game was all but lost. Instead of 1 and 2 run games or 12 and 13 run games, this team needs to start putting up 5, 6 or 7 run games with a bit more regularity. Hopefully Sunday’s 7 run contest was a sample of things to come.

Atlanta will stay at Turner Field to begin a big four game series against the rival Mets on Monday. The Braves’ NL East lead sits at just 2 games following the Phillies’ impressive three game sweep of the NL-best San Diego Padres out in California, so winning at least three of the four games against the .500 Mets in Atlanta will be important. Jurrjens, Minor, Hanson and Hudson will match-up against Misch, Niese, Pelfrey and Santana, respectively. That series finale between Hudson and Santana should be a great one!

Thursday, August 26, 2010

Rocky Mountain LOW

The Braves departed Denver last night with exactly zero wins after being swept in their three games series. The team spent the first two games trying to figure out how to hit the ball. They didn't figure it out until Wednesday's first three innings when they tagged the Rockies for 10 runs. Unfortunately, the pitchers then forgot how to get outs as they blew a nine-run lead over the next 5 innings. Fortunately the Phillies have also lost their past 3 games..to the Astros..IN Philadelphia (ATL and PHI have matched wins and losses on the same day since 8/14). So, unbelievably, the Braves' 2.5 game lead in the NL East remains.

When was the last time the Braves have shown quality pitching, hitting and defense in the same game? How about even two of those in the same game? Atlanta pitchers have been near-dominant all year, but Wednesday's implosion proved that they are indeed human. The defense has been suspect the entire season and it's gotten even worse since the all-star break. But, despite yesterday's 10 runs, it's been the offense's inconsistency that has hurt the team the most, especially this month.

Monday, August 23, 2010

See You Later Sweet Lou!

The Braves won a very important road series in Chicago this weekend with their 16-5 Sunday afternoon victory in what ended up being Lou Pinella’s last game as a manager. Jason Heyward and Omar Infante represented the offensive fire power with 2 home runs apiece. The series included just about every story line possible with the team’s 22nd last at bat win on Friday, more RISP struggles (2-11) on Saturday and a Mike Minor rookie strikeout record on Sunday.

Minor struck out 12 Cubs on Sunday with an unhittable change-up to break the Atlanta record (previously held by Tommy Hanson, who put up 11 last year) and tie the Braves’ franchise record. His name doesn’t begin with ‘Stras’ and he doesn’t have a 100mph fastball, but I wonder how much press his performance will garner. My guess is not that much (especially here in Upstate, NY). Minor’s 12 K went along with 6 IP, 3 ER, 7 H and 1 BB to earn him his second win of the season in only his third start. In those 3 starts, Minor has a 4.00 ERA but just a 1.17 WHIP, a .236 BAA and a stellar 5.5 K/BB. He definitely impressed in the minors this season, but I’m not sure many expected him to jump right into this rotation and put up those numbers in the middle of a heated pennant race. Minor’s obviously still a rookie, but if he can continue to perform like he has so far, he will provide Bobby with the option of throwing up a LHP against a line-up if/when the Braves head into the play-offs.

Thursday, August 19, 2010

On The Road Again

The Cardiac Braves continued to (mostly) live up to their nickname during a series win against the Nationals this week. Jason Heyward gave Atlanta their major league-leading 21st last at bat win with a two-out single in the bottom of the 9th on Wednesday. A day earlier, the Braves stormed back from a 2-0 deficit with 10 runs after the 5th inning. The team had managed just one hit through 5 innings before their three inning offensive explosion. Derek Lowe was roughed up on Thursday and despite 7 hits, the Braves again had problems driving runners in (1-9 with RISP), as the Nationals prevented the sweep with a 6-2 victory. Oh, and Matt Diaz’s boneheaded base running certainly didn’t help either.

Outside of Lowe being tagged for 4 earned runs over 7 innings on Thursday, the Braves stellar pitching continued. Mike Minor picked up his first career major league victory in his Turner Field debut on Tuesday with a solid 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 5 K, 2 BB performance while Tim Hudson held the Nats to 2 runs over 7 innings on Wednesday.

While the pitchers excel, Martin Prado has been on a tear since his return from the DL. The Braves second baseman went 6-12 with 2 2B, 3 RBI and 4 R while hitting third and playing third. If he's still feeling discomfort in his pinky, he's certainly not letting it affect his play on the field. On the opposite side spectrum, Eric Hinske continues his August slump and is now hitting .094 (3-32) this month. But, with perfect timing, Derrek Lee will slide into the first base position on Friday at Wrigley Field. Lee’s a career .308/.388/.577 hitter among the ivy, so here’s hoping he manages to leave Chicago with a bang.

The Braves will be facing the Cubs for the first time this season since opening week for a three-game series in Chicago. This will be an important week (they follow with 3 games on the road against the Rockies) as Atlanta holds just a 2.5 game lead over the Phillies, who will be playing their next 7 games at Citizens Bank Park. Jurrjens, Hanson and Minor will match-up against Dempster, Gorzelanny and Wells.

Wednesday, August 18, 2010

Braves Trade For Derrek Lee

Braves fans had to wait until August, but it looks like we finally got the power bat the team needed as Atlanta acquired 1B Derrek Lee (and cash) from the Cubs for three minor league pitchers. While Troy Glaus has been struggling since mid-June, Chipper Jones’ season ending knee injury solidified the need for the middle of the order hitter. Lee’s recovering from a cortisone shot he received earlier this week to help heal a bulging disc, so he’s expected to be in the line-up Friday at…Wrigley Field. The move has already been analyzed by everyone and their brother (here, here and here), so I might as well go ahead and add my two cents!

I’m excited to have Lee as part of this team for the stretch run. He’s put up abnormally low numbers so far this year with a .251/.335/.416 line to go along with 16 HR and 56 RBI, but those numbers were skewed by a terribly slow start where he hit just .205 over the first month of the season. He’s progressively heated up during the year and is now hitting .306/.381/.694 in August. With Lee, the Braves are able to keep a right-handed bat in the line-up and hopefully add some power. Outside of an injury shortened 2006 season, Lee’s hit at least 20 homers every year since 2000, including 35 last year. Since he’s replacing Glaus, Lee doesn’t have to do much to be an improvement. But if he can show something along the lines of .275 with 8-10 HR and 20-25 RBI for the rest of the season, he’ll be a significant, and important, addition. Lee’s set to make just shy of $3.5 million (which the Cubs will pick up a small portion of surprising $1.7m of ) through the rest of the year and his contract ends after 2010, so there’s no long term financial commitment and the first base spot will be open next year for Freddie Freeman should the team want him there to start the 2011 season. During Wednesday night’s SportsSouth broadcast, Frank Wren seemed to infer Lee might hit in the 3-hole. I think most Braves fans would like to see Lee hitting 5th, so if that’s the case, a line-up could look like this:

Tuesday, August 17, 2010

Better Late Than Never!

I may not be able to physically make it through the rest of the season at this pace..and I’m not even playing! The Cardiac Braves waited until the bottom of the 9th to claim the series victory against the Dodgers with their 20th last at-bat win of the season (as an aside, games like THAT are why I have MLB.tv!). With the exception of a 13-1 offensive explosion on Sunday, each game was low-scoring and decided by just one run. The starting pitching continues its torrid August as Hudson, Lowe, Jurrjens and Hanson put up an amazing 0.96 ERA (3 ER in 28 IP) during the four game series. Atlanta's now 2.5 games up on the Phillies in the NL East, a major league best 42-16 at home and are 1.5 games behind the Padres for the best record in the National League. But while the pitching has been flat out AMAZING and the wins are piling up, there is still plenty of room for improvement with this team.

Outside of the rare 13-run outburst in game three, the Braves averaged just 2 runs per game during the series. The team went 0-fer with RISP in the first two games and then waited until Melky’s walk-off hit to get their first base knock with runners in scoring position on Monday (they went 7-14 in those situations on Sunday, thanks in part to the ageless Vincente Padilla). The pitching has been strong enough recently to cover-up most of that ineffectiveness, but we have to assume the pitching will at least regress some. If the Braves make it to the play-offs, we’ll need to see more offense and better situational hitting. On average, the team would see stronger pitching and stronger offenses. Squeezing out walk-off wins after your starting pitcher gives up one earned through seven innings won’t always cut it. This week’s anticipated return of Martin Prado should help (where will he hit in the line-up?..lead-off, third?), but the current 3-4-5 string of Alex Gonzalez, Brian McCann and Troy Glaus isn’t the most frightening middle of the line-up for opposing pitchers.