Friday, December 10, 2010

See Ya Scotty

Widely covered already, the Braves lost LHP Scott Diamond to the Minnesota Twins in yesterday's Rule 5 Draft. I probably wouldn't be holding true to my "Atlanta Braves fan from Upstate, NY" blog intent if I didn't specifically highlight this move.

Diamond wasn't a top-level prospect for the Braves (hence the reason why the team didn't protect him with their open 40-man roster spot), but he is a product of Upstate, NY. Despite being from Guelph, Ontario, Canada, Diamond pitched collegiately for the Division I Binghamton University Bearcats in Vestal, NY. Binghamton also happens to be in the same conference (America East), and serves as the main rival, of my alma mater, the University at Albany. He was signed as an undrafted free agent by Atlanta in 2007. While I wasn't tuned in enough to college baseball at the time Diamond pitched for the Bearcats to see him play, I enjoyed following him through the Braves minor league system over the past year or two due to his connection to Upstate, NY.

Diamond pitched well in 2010 between Double A Mississippi and Triple A Gwinnett, but he was caught in the middle of a stocked Atlanta pitching prospect group. His selection by the Twins gives him a pretty solid major league chance. Minnesota has bullpen needs that might allow him to fill a lefty specialist role and there are still some questions at the back end of their starting rotation.

But there's still a chance Diamond could return to the Braves system. As compensation for the pick, the Twins sent Atlanta $50,000. Rule 5 requires Minnesota to keep him on the team's 25-man roster for the entire 2011 season in order to guarantee his rights. If they don't, the team must offer Diamond back to the Braves for $25,000. I'd love to see him return as a Brave, but it would certainly be exciting to see him given a shot at the big leagues.

Thursday, December 9, 2010

Hinske, Linebrink and Sherrill...Oh My!

I can't imagine what Frank Wren's cell phone bill looks like. In the past week, the Atlanta Braves GM has added to the team's bench while addressing the few remaining bullpen needs. Let's take a look at these moves...

Last week Eric Hinske agreed to the Braves contract offer, bringing the playoff good luck charm back for the 2011 season. Hinske will earn $1.35 million next year with a $1.5 million club option for 2012 ($100k buyout). That's a pretty good deal if you ask me. Hinske turned down what was believed to be a comparable offer to join his home state Milwaukee Brewers. Assuming he performs similar to this past season, the 1B/OF will provide notable left-handed power off the Braves bench. Unfortunately, Hinske's signing sealed the departure of Matt Diaz. In addition to being a fan favorite, Diaz remains a career LHP killer. With Omar Infante and Melky Cabrera no longer on the team, the Braves didn't have the positional flexibility to keep both Hinske and Diaz. On the fortunate side, Diaz has already signed a 2yr/$4.25m contract with the Pirates. Great for him to pick up some stability. I wish him well!

With Hinske back, Wren turned his sights to the Braves bullpen. Prior to jumping down to Disney World for the MLB Winter Meetings, he swapped minor league pitcher Kyle Cofield for right reliever Scott Linebrink from the White Sox. Cofield hadn't made it past Double A after being drafted by Atlanta in 2005, so it's not much of a give up for Atlanta. The 34-year-old Linebrink has struggled a bit over the past couple years in Chicago, but has traditionally been a solid bullpen presence during his 11 career major league seasons. Should Roger McDowell be able to help him return to pre-2009 form, he will serve as a solid middle-to-late inning RHP option, replacing the Takashi Saito/Kyle Farsworth role last year. Perhaps most importantly, the Braves will also receive about $3.5m to help cover Linebrink's $5.5m 2011 salary.

Tuesday, November 30, 2010

As The Winter Meetings Approach...

As the temperature begins to flirt with the freezing mark here in Upstate, NY, Frank Wren and the Atlanta Braves front office are preparing for the Winter Meetings next week in Orlando, Florida. After claiming 1B/OF Joe Mather and trading for Dan Uggla within the past month, Wren’s 25-man roster is progressing nicely.

Let’s take a look where the Braves are at as the calendar turns to December…

Starting Rotation:
Tim Hudson, Tommy Hanson and Derek Lowe are set. Jair Jurrjens is also under team control for the 3rd/4th spot in the rotation, but he’s rumored to be available as a possible trade piece if his moving could help address other Braves needs (read outfield). While Atlanta has a number of feasible options for the 5th spot, Mike Minor and Brandon Beachy are the most likely possibilities. The two of them could also be used as trade pieces, but I’ll guess that Minor starts the 2011 season in that last spot. The highly-touted prospect had some impressive outings in his short time with the Braves and a left-hander in the rotation could be nice.

Tuesday, November 16, 2010

Braves Acquire Their Power-Hitter

WOW. The Braves acquired Dan Uggla from the Marlins early this evening in exchange for Omar Infante and Mike Dunn. Let me rephrase that: Atlanta got a 30 HR/100 RBI guy for a utility infielder and a left-handed reliever. Granted Infante was an All-Star this past year who finished the season with a .321 AVG and Dunn looks to be a promising bullpen asset, but the Braves addressed their pressing right-handed power bat need, though not through the OF position that most fans were expecting. Atlanta had the National League’s starting 2B in this year's All-Star game, yet they traded for a new 2B and actually got better. Pretty impressive.

First, the good. Dan Uggla immediately becomes the middle-of-the-order power threat that Atlanta lacked in 2010. As a RHB, he will help to balance out the lefty Heyward, McCann and Freeman. Uggla is the only 2B to hit 30+ HR in 4 consecutive seasons. In just 5 major league seasons, he’s already 13th on the all-time list for home runs by a 2B. He’s a 2x All-Star and won the Silver Slugger award in 2010. On top of all those positives, we ‘eliminate’ someone who has traditionally killed the Braves. In 45 career games as a Marlin at Turner Field, Uggla hit .354/.399/.652 with 12 HR and 36 RBI. Over 162 games, that projects to 43 HR and 130 RBI. Bill James projects his 2011 season to look like .263/.352/.483 with 31 HR and 94 RBI. Hopefully the friendly confines of Turner Field bumps those numbers up even higher.

On the other side of the trade, the Braves effectively sold high on a career .274/.319/.395 back-up while also giving up a 25 year old reliever who has thrown a total of 23 IP out of the bullpen. True, Omar Infante had a great season in 2010 and Dunn looks to have his best years in front of him after a 12.8 K/9 in a 19 IP campaign last year, but they weren’t key pieces of this team. Infante is only signed through 2011 and would probably earn a raise if he were to put up another season like he did this year. Dunn impressed those who saw him in his 25 appearances in 2010, but the Braves already have two strong left-handed relievers in Jonny Venters and Eric O’Flaherty. That was a surplus that Atlanta was able to deal from. Frank Wren managed to solve his biggest need without giving up a single serious prospect (Freeman, Kimbrel, Minor, Teheran, Delgado, Vizcaino, Beachy, etc.). Again, pretty impressive.

Sunday, November 7, 2010

2011 Braves Slowly Taking Shape

The Braves made a handful of moves over the past 10 days that have begun to shape what the team may look like in the 2011 season. I’ll take a look at these transactions and offer my thoughts on how they might impact the rest of the decisions Frank Wren will have to make this offseason.

First, least surprisingly, Atlanta picked up the options on both Alex Gonzalez and Omar Infante. The players will cost the Braves $2.5 million each in 2011. Gonzalez will again start at SS, following his mid-season acquisition from Toronto for Yunel Escobar. He doesn’t seem to fit into the team’s long-range plans, but it would be difficult for Wren to find another shortstop like Gonzo at his price, especially considering the team’s other pressing needs. As a productive ultra-utility player, Infante’s option was a no-brainer. The 2010 All-Star hit .321 this past season and can play 2B, 3B, SS, LF and RF. With Chipper and Gonzo aging and Chipper and Prado returning from injury, Infante figures to get a decent amount of playing time next year.

On the same day that Gonzalez and Infante’s options were picked up, the Braves agreed to terms with right-handed reliever Scott Proctor. He’ll earn $750k, plus incentives. To start, the one personal ‘interaction’ I had with Proctor was impressive. He certainly seems like a great guy. But from a baseball standpoint, this move was quite surprising. He was signed before the 2010 season after missing the entire 2009 season due to injury. The Braves picked him up as a bit ‘low-risk, high-reward’ move. He pitched in 37 games between Myrtle Beach and Gwinnett and did not do much to impress. While his 7.3 K/9 was decent enough, a 6.91 ERA, 1.68 WHIP and 2.00 K/BB aren’t exactly something you expect from a major league-quality reliever. Despite those numbers, he was brought up to Atlanta where he posted a 6.35 ERA with a 1.41 WHIP and a 1.50 K/BB in 6 games. While $750k isn’t a significant part of the overall payroll, there seemed to be better options than Proctor.

Monday, October 25, 2010

Your 2011 Atlanta Braves - CF, LF (Trades)

So, if none of the free agent options work, Frank Wren may look at the trade market. This will involve even more speculation on my part, mainly because the Braves front office has a history of making deals outside of the conventional rumor mill. But I’ll offer my thoughts.

First, the Braves have a heavy minor league/prospect pitching surplus to deal from. I think the team’s only ‘untouchables’ are Freddie Freeman and Julio Teheran (and Craig Kimbrel, if you think he’d be in the discussion). I’d be hesitant to make Randall Delgado available, but if the price is right, who knows. The team has a number of at or near MLB-ready starting pitchers to work with, including Mike Minor, Brandon Beachy, Scott Diamond and Todd Redmond. That doesn’t include Kenshin Kawakami who the Braves would certainly like to trade, but would likely be done in a salary relief move. As has been discussed, perhaps Jair Jurrjens could also be offered. He wouldn’t bring too much salary relief, but he’s under team control through 2013 and at just 24 years old is already 37-27 with a 3.52 ERA. He would likely decrease some of the salary the Braves might have to eat up in a trade, leaving funds available to maybe sign Javier Vazquez to a one-year deal as a 4th starter?

Looking at position players, the team could also look to include Nate McLouth in a deal to free up some cash. If that were to happen, perhaps Gwinnett’s Matt Young could/would be given a chance to start? Young has experience in both LF and CF put up an impressive .300/.380/.407 line in 2010. He certainly wouldn’t be a power threat, but his 39 stolen bases this season could add a speed dimension to the 2011 Braves, similar to what Brett Gardner has done for the Yankees (another NY team reference, see what happens when you live here???).

So, in alphabetical order, who could the Braves target?

Sunday, October 24, 2010

Your 2011 Atlanta Braves - CF, LF (Free Agency)

I had hoped to write just one entry focusing on CF and LF, but's it's clear that I had way too much to say. So this post will sum up free agency possibilities while the next will look at the trade market.

CF - Nate McLouth?
LF - X

You can basically write an entire book analyzing these two positions for the 2011 Braves. Let’s lay out the facts first and then go on to the speculation from there. First, all of Braves Country rejoiced earlier last week when Frank Wren non-tendered Melky Cabrera. The ‘should be’ 4th/5th outfielder started 115 games in the outfield for Atlanta, second only behind Jason Heyward’s 136. Trade-deadline acquisition Rick Ankiel has a $6m option for next season with a $500k buy out. Ankiel’s worth nowhere near that option figure, so the Braves will cough up the half million to get rid of him. So, working on the pretty solid assumption that Matt Diaz isn’t a starter, that creates one starting outfielder vacancy. Next, Nate McLouth is signed through 2011 (with a club option for ’12) at $6.5m (a $2m increase over his ’10 salary), so he will somehow play a part in the team’s plans for next year. Despite earning an All-Star selection and a Gold Glove just two years ago, McLouth’s rough 2010 season makes that $6.5m salary look pretty expensive. He’s still relatively young, so he could be shopped around as a trade possibility. That, combined with his ability to play both LF and CF, effectively put both starting positions into play for the Braves in 2011.

Now for the speculation. Atlanta has an obvious need for a power-type bat, preferably one who hits right-handed as Heyward, McCann and Freeman are all lefties. The two ‘big’ outfield free agents are Jayson Werth and Carl Crawford. Crawford is a lefty (and not exactly a ‘power’ bat) and both, barring any significant changes/unknowns, are prohibitively expensive. Because of the limited options, they will likely each earn a $100m+ contract. So, let’s take a wide-ranging look at the (possible) free agents who could be on the Braves’ radar. There are a number of factors, but I’m guessing the Braves will have $6m-$10m to ‘spend’ in 2011 on a new outfielder. The centerfield FA list is pretty meager (considering about a third of that list is either Melky or Ankiel), unless you think Coco Crisp is the savior to the team’s OF problems. There are a handful of non-CF outfield options, so, in alphabetical order: